As President Trump begins his second term, the impact of his first 100 days in office is already reshaping the global air travel landscape. For an industry built on freedom of movement and international cooperation, the last few months have been nothing short of a seismic shock.
Global travel to the United States is experiencing a steep decline. Airlines, tourism boards, and even small businesses dependent on international visitors are feeling the ripple effects of a volatile political climate, marked by sweeping executive actions, trade tensions, and an increasingly unwelcoming border posture.
Perhaps nowhere is the downturn more pronounced than in Canada, the United States’ closest neighbour and one of its most reliable tourism sources. According to the Official Airline Guide (OAG), “future flight bookings between Canada and the U.S. have collapsed.” Their data, drawn from a major global distribution system (GDS) provider, compares bookings from this time last year with those for the upcoming summer season. The results are staggering: bookings are down by more than 70% in every month through September.
OAG attributes this dramatic decline to mounting uncertainty, particularly surrounding a growing trade dispute. “Unfortunately, the law of unintended consequences is once again impacting the airline industry,” OAG noted in its report. “Even before the President’s new tariff announcement on April 3, the market was already softening. Now, we’re seeing travellers hold off entirely.”
And it’s not just Canada. The new tariff hit list includes dozens of nations, many of which are seeing a corresponding drop in demand for U.S. travel. Some are facing declines exceeding 40%. Airlines are beginning to discount fares in an attempt to stimulate demand, but industry experts warn that the coming months will be tense. “It will be a nervous few months for many carriers,” OAG cautioned.
While trade policy has clearly rattled confidence, a wider range of actions under the Trump administration has deepened the damage. One of the most consequential was the reintroduction of an expanded travel ban—coined “Travel Ban 2.0”—affecting 43 nations. Though countries like São Tomé and Príncipe may not send large numbers of visitors to the U.S., the broader message has been received loud and clear across the globe: America is no longer rolling out the welcome mat.
Skift, a travel industry intelligence platform, estimates that the expanded ban could directly impact around 697,000 potential visitors—a modest 1.4% of total arrivals—but adds that this figure doesn’t reflect the broader chilling effect. Many potential travellers, even those from unaffected nations, are now choosing to bypass the U.S. entirely.
The economic consequences are beginning to show. According to Business Insider, tensions with Canada alone could result in significant losses. A 10% reduction in Canadian visitors would wipe out $2.1 billion in tourism spending and lead to the loss of 14,000 jobs, particularly in border states like Michigan, New York, and Washington.
Aggressive immigration enforcement is further fuelling uncertainty. The Financial Times has reported growing numbers of tourists from Europe and Canada being detained or even deported over minor visa discrepancies. One Canadian woman made international headlines after being detained for two weeks in reportedly harsh conditions—despite having valid documentation.
As fear spreads, governments are responding with updated travel advisories. France recently revised its guidance, strongly recommending that travellers consult both the U.S. embassy and their airline before departure. The advisory specifically warns visa applicants about a new presidential decree requiring the designation of “sex at birth,” a controversial move that has drawn criticism from LGBTQ+ advocacy groups and sparked concern among European governments.
A Condé Nast Traveller report highlights growing anxiety across the travel industry. Intrepid Travel, an Australia-based small group travel operator, says it has seen “some softening in demand for the U.S., in particular from Europe.” CEO James Thornton points to a 27% decline in domestic U.S. travel, along with a 12.8% drop in inbound traffic from Europe, the Middle East, and Africa. “The U.S. administration’s polarizing approach is definitely having an impact,” Thornton said, noting that the strong dollar is likely exacerbating the trend.
These anxieties extend into international sporting and cultural events as well. The Guardian reports that the Zambian Football Association recently pulled four U.S.-based players from their national women’s team, citing fears that the players might face difficulties re-entering the U.S. under the administration’s new immigration policies. It’s a stark reminder that for athletes, artists, and performers, the stakes are not just bureaucratic—they’re career-altering.
High-profile individuals are beginning to speak out. Canadian-American musician Neil Young expressed concern that he could be banned from returning to the U.S. after his European tour, citing his outspoken criticism of President Trump. “It’s no longer just about what you do or where you’re from—it’s about what you say,” one of his representatives told AP News.
The cumulative effect of these developments is a projected 9.4% drop in international travel to the U.S., according to Tourism Economics. This figure marks a sharp reversal from previous projections, which anticipated growth. The downturn is likely to hit hotels, theme parks, museums, and national parks, not to mention countless small businesses that rely on tourism.
Perhaps the greatest irony is that this downturn comes just as the U.S. travel and tourism industry was poised for record growth. The BBC reports that in 2024, the World Travel & Tourism Council (WTTC) ranked the U.S. as the world’s top tourism market, valued at $2.36 trillion. Prior to Trump’s re-election, the U.S. Bureau of Labor Statistics forecasted more than 800,000 new jobs in the leisure and hospitality sector.
But those projections have now been dramatically revised. Tourism Economics has updated its inbound travel forecast from a robust 8.8% growth to a 5.1% decline, citing “strained sentiment, sweeping tariffs, and exchange rate shifts.” The result? A bleaker economic outlook, particularly for regions and industries that depend on international visitors.
Airlines, too, are feeling the pressure. As they scramble to adjust schedules and pricing strategies, many are also grappling with a growing concern: how will American travellers be treated abroad? With France and other EU countries updating advisories and screening requirements, some U.S. citizens are beginning to feel that the cold shoulder is mutual.
There is little evidence to suggest the rhetoric or policy direction will soften in the near term. If anything, the administration appears to be doubling down on its confrontational stance, often framing criticism as an attack on sovereignty.
In just 100 days, President Trump’s actions have managed to recast the United States’ global image—from a nation that welcomed the world to one that warns it to tread carefully. The consequences for global air travel are not only immediate but could shape the industry for years to come.
The skies remain open, but the sentiment is clear: for many would-be visitors, the United States no longer feels like a destination—it feels like a risk.
