New data sets released by New York analysts Bernstein show that airline traffic is back to 2019 levels and set to climb as we close the decade out.
This first graphic shows the COVID related airline traffic downturn and the subsequent growth indexed to 2019.
Bernstein said that “over last 50 years, airline traffic, as measured by global air passengers, moved with GDP growth, but is higher beta, averaging about 5% annual growth up to 2019. In recent years, actual results have significantly deviated from the long-term trends.
In 2020, the aviation industry was smashed by COVID with RPK and ASK falling by 66% and 57% y/y, respectively. The industry has since been gradually recovering, enjoying a few years of catch-up recovery.
This table shows the world fleet of Boeing and Airbus aircraft broken up into model and age.
This next graphic below shows that net orders for Airbus and Boeing, with Boeing suffering cancellations due to the MAX grounding in 2019 and 2020.
The following two graphics show the relative net orders for firstly widebody and then narrowbody orders.
This graphic below outlines the commercial aircraft delivery history.
This one the widebody delivery history.
Turning to the backlog this graphic shows the battle between the Airbus A320 family and the Boeing 737 MAX with the former a clear winner led by the Airbus A321neo.
When it comes to widebodies however Boeing strikes back, although it is yet to deliver a single 777-9 or -8.
This graphic is fascinating as it shows the dramatic growth in backlog over the past 20 years as air travel has become more affordable.
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Aviation has been a passion of mine for over 50 years and the focus has always been to strive to get the facts right and then to deliver them in a way that is easy to understand.
Aviation is one of the most complex of industries with most aspects the opposite of what you would think.
A simple example is strength. We all associate strength with rigidity but in aviation its flexibility – like the incredible bend of a wing.
