At the 2025 Bernstein Strategic Decisions Conference in New York, Boeing CEO Kelly Ortberg provided a comprehensive update on Boeing Commercial Airplanes (BCA) production capacity, aircraft ramp-up timelines, and certification progress across major programs.
The key focus was on aligning production rates with strong demand, while ensuring quality, regulatory compliance, and supply chain stability. Here are the details:
Demand Outlook and Production Capacity Constraints
Ortberg highlighted the significant imbalance between Boeing’s current production capacity and its backlog. BCA remains effectively sold out through the end of the decade, underscoring the urgent need to scale production across all major aircraft families.
To meet this challenge, Boeing is actively working to ramp up output. The company is nearing a production rate of 38 aircraft per month for the 737 MAX, with plans to further increase output on the 787 Dreamliner and to initiate production for the 777X program.
737 MAX Production Ramp
Boeing is on the cusp of stabilizing the 737 MAX production line at 38 aircraft per month. This level will be maintained temporarily to validate sustainability and quality standards. Following performance confirmation, Boeing will consult with the FAA and target an increase to 42 aircraft per month—a key milestone for improving free cash flow (FCF).
If execution remains on track, the next production milestone will be 47 aircraft per month, anticipated by 2026, with rate transitions occurring approximately every six months. Ortberg emphasized that although moving to higher rates will stress the supply chain, the company is confident due to improved conditions and a recovery-oriented strategy, rather than a push to historic peak levels.
Notably, Boeing previously achieved a rate of 57 aircraft per month, and the CEO stated that many suppliers are already operating near these higher volumes. Fuselage supply issues—historically a bottleneck—have improved significantly, supported by added internal capacity and better quality metrics reported by customers.
737-7 and 737-10 Certification Status
Boeing is nearing final FAA certification for the 737-7, while the 737-10 still has pending regulatory milestones. The company is continuing to produce both models in anticipation of eventual certification. Special attention is being paid to the 737-10 due to complex and custom seat configurations required by certain airline customers, which introduce additional certification challenges.
787 Dreamliner Program Update
The 787 program reflects noticeable progress in supply chain stabilization. Interior seating systems remain a key challenge, especially when new seating configurations require additional regulatory approval. These certification-related delays are not indicative of production system issues. Ortberg expects these obstacles to be resolved within the year.
Looking ahead, Boeing is preparing to increase Dreamliner output from 5 to 7 aircraft per month, following a recent milestone review with the FAA. While there is no definitive timeline for reaching 10 per month, Ortberg confirmed that the current infrastructure can support that rate. Scaling beyond 10/month will require targeted capital investments, which are already in progress.
777X Development and Testing
The 777X program has made significant progress toward certification. Most regulatory requirements have been completed, and the flight test program—consisting of four aircraft—is progressing well. Boeing expects to conclude testing in the near term and begin deliveries in 2026. Ortberg noted that the 777X has undergone more test hours than any aircraft in Boeing’s history, providing added assurance of its maturity.
777 Freighter Transition
The current 777 Freighter program is expected to conclude by 2027, after which Boeing will transition to the 777XF, a new freighter variant based on the 777X platform.
