The International Air Transport Association (IATA) has warned that the slow and misdirected pace of policy action is putting the future of Sustainable Aviation Fuel (SAF) at risk. While global SAF production is expected to double to 2 million tonnes (2.5 billion liters) in 2025, this still represents a mere 0.7% of airlines’ total fuel consumption—barely a dent in aviation’s decarbonization goals.
“Doubling Sustainable Aviation Fuel output sounds promising, but in reality, it’s not even scratching the surface,” said Willie Walsh, IATA’s Director General. “Even this small volume adds $4.4 billion to airlines’ fuel bills globally. The industry needs rapid scale-up and efficiency gains, not empty targets.”
Mandates Gone Wrong: Europe’s SAF Approach Backfires
Instead of spurring adoption, European SAF mandates introduced on 1 January 2025 have backfired—driving up costs and distorting the market. With most SAF now diverted to Europe to meet compliance obligations, airlines face skyrocketing costs.
For the 1 million tonnes of SAF expected to be purchased in Europe this year, airlines will pay $1.2 billion at market price—plus an additional $1.7 billion in compliance fees, levied by SAF producers and suppliers. These fees, IATA notes, could have reduced 3.5 million tonnes of CO₂ emissions had they been invested in actual decarbonization efforts.
“Mandating SAF use before markets are ready—and without guardrails—has made SAF five times more expensive than conventional jet fuel,” said Walsh. “Europe’s strategy is not accelerating the transition—it’s undermining it. If the goal is to decarbonize aviation, this is the wrong road.”
Global Solutions, Not Local Barriers
To break these bottlenecks and enable truly global SAF growth, IATA is spearheading two key initiatives:
- CADO SAF Registry – A global, standardized registry to track SAF production, purchases, and emissions reductions in compliance with CORSIA and the EU ETS.
- SAF Matchmaker – A platform that connects airline demand with supplier availability, simplifying procurement and expanding access.
A Call to Action: What Governments Must Do Now
IATA is calling on governments to abandon flawed approaches and take meaningful action in three critical areas:
- Fix the Policy Imbalance: Level the playing field between renewable energy producers and fossil fuel giants. Reallocate a portion of the $1 trillion in annual fossil fuel subsidies to support SAF development.
- Build a Unified Energy Policy: Ensure aviation is integrated into national and global renewable energy strategies. SAF production depends on greater access to renewable energy and supportive infrastructure across all sectors.
- Back CORSIA as the Global Solution: CORSIA must remain the only market-based mechanism for tackling international aviation’s emissions. Governments should release more Eligible Emissions Units (EEUs) to help airlines meet their obligations. Currently, only Guyana has done so.
Conclusion
The energy transition in aviation will cost an estimated $4.7 trillion. Governments can’t afford to waste time—or money—on policies that raise costs without reducing emissions. The SAF market won’t take off without clear direction, fair regulation, and global cooperation. The time to act is now.
